Atiku’s Candidacy: Can Tinubu rewrite history?
By: Sani Danaudi Mohammed
AREWA AGENDA – It was on my May 28th May,2022 at few Minutes after 12pm that Chairman of the People Democratic party National Convention,Former President of the Nigerian Senate Senator David Mark declared the former Nigerian Vice President Atiku Abubakar winner of the 2022 PDP National convention.This has set the ball rolling and has changed the calculations of the ruling All Progressives Congress to look around and firm all its presidential aspirants considering the political might the former vp enjoys from the North to South especially as is been favoured by the Northern demography.
Since then both international and National Media outfits especially the Social Media the down sunday awash with the filtering news from the M.K.O National stadium Abuja venue of the People Democratic party primary election for 2023 PDP National convention where the former Nigerian Vice President Atiku a surpring winner emerged.It has been Atiku ,Atiku and Atiku on all platforms defeating his closest rival Gov. Nyeson Wike,Saraki,Udom Emmanuel,Gov. Bala Mohammed and other notable contestants.
Though Atiku’s victory spoke alot about his decades of experience and long-term investment in the politics of Nigeria and how he mastered the game over the years. He made his first surprising debut in Nigerian politics in 1993, Atiku Abubakar has unsuccessfully contested five times for the Office of President of Nigeria in 1993, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019 and now on his sixth trials.The 75 years old Atiku has rolled and taste his popularity in different political parties from SDP in 1993,ACN in 2007,PDP in 2011,APC in 2015 and PDP in 2019 the flag he is flying in 2023.The aftermath of the PDP National convention has furthered showcase their readiness to work together as a team to take over power.
BUHARI’S NORTHERN 12M VOTES.
Political demography has always favoured President Muhammadu Buhari since joining active politics in 2003. He has maintained a range of 12m and above Votes in the North with more than 50% of such votes coming from the KK States.According to the Governor of Sokoto State Rt.Hon.Tambuwal the PDP must consider demography as the first step of reclaiming power from the APC and that may have guided his patriotic decision to stepped down for Atiku.It is clear now that PDP gave winning the next elections a preference than pleasing the power and Southern Presidency agitators.
However the emergence of Atiku Abubakar has spoken the readiness of the PDP to take over if at all demography will continue to decide the Nigerian Presidency. Political analyst are of the opinion that those 12m Votes will disobey will go for Atiku should APC fill a candidate from the South.Orzo Kalu has strongly advised APC to ensure that their ticket come to the North if they must retain power.Nigerian democracy has not mature beyond tribes,religion and regions. As it stands,the APC seem to have ceaded their Presidential ticket to the South even though Senate President Ahmad Lawan and Yahaya Bello of Kogi State among others from the North are also are jostling for the ticket.
SHOULD TINUBU WINS THE APC TICKET
All eyes are now on the ruling All Progressives Congress national convention scheduled for June 6th,2022 to decide their Presidential ticket.Tinubu seem to be another Atiku in the APC because they shared similar vast experience in Nigerian politics as no single political page can be flip without blinking on one of the two political lions.They have been in politics for decades and has paid the supreme price for Nigerian democracy.both can burst up hundred of Atiku’s or Tinubu’s boys with some been governors,Ministers and members of the National Assembly.
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However,Atiku touch currently can light a million of kilometres for his political party chances of winning the Presidential elections as against Tinubu who’s ambition is tight down on who will be his running mate.each time his name is mention then the next question that follows even in Rufan Mai Shayi (Tea Join).Who will be deputies him from the North?.The annulment of the June 12th 1993 MKO/Kingibe Presidential election Muslim/Muslim ticket is currently itching deeply our democracy that to be bended along tribes,regions and religion.PDP and Atiku chances are now brighter with the South South slotting in for VP. Tinubu’s emergence at the next APC National Convention will never affect the chances of Atiku unless VP Osinbanjo or Rt.Hon Amaechi one is able to cinch the ticket.Nigeria is a multi-ecthnic and secular state divided that forced itself to be ceaded as either Muslim North or Christian South.
Since 1979, the cultural political practice has always been either a Muslim Northern President and Christian Southern Vice President or otherwise unless the Jagaban will rewrites the history of the nation ugly political narratives that has chased away competency and credibility to politics of our own.Sad it may be ,Nigerians are force to believe and stand by this theory that only a Christian Candidate who will automatically has his running mate a Muslim from the North can compete with Atiku.The major problem of Atiku ticket is who will deputies him between Wike,Okowa,Udom Emmanuel and Emeka Ideoha.
The South East are in delima of loosing both the Presidency and vice Presidential slots as none of the political parties can take the dark risk with the increasing seat at home order by either IPOB under the aegis of unknown gun men. Why if Simon Ekpan issue an order of seat at home on an elections day? APC will definitely not cead its presidential to the South East. should the South West loose then the next door neighbour is the South South unless if they listen to Orji Kalu to reconsider the North again.The inability of the South East to unites against their comon dream of winning the Presidency does not go beyond issuing Press Statements because with 285 PDP National delegates only 14 goes to Anyim Pius Anyim.
The APC great challenges is how to manage massive defections that May likely hit the party after the National Convention especially if Tinubu fail to clinch the Party ticket. Strong indication has emerge that the Jagaban is working on an option of joining the Social Democratic Party a platform he won his senatorial seat 29 years ago. The APC must get it right otherwise their dream of retaining power may end up sending them to a premature retirements as PMB has only a year to go.Atiku is out to end the North East 62 years Power drought and the PMB votes are ceaded to Atiku.
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APC should ensure a candidate from the southern part emerge especially Osinbanjo or Amaechi and slot in Professor Zullum or Nasir El-rufai as the running mate.Tinubu’s ticket has to work with only two options either a Mullim (South ) vs Christian (North) or Muslim(South) vs Muslim (North ). Osinbanjo or Amaechi can balance the current ugly Nigerian Political calculations and Presidential ticket as compared to the Jagaban.
As for PDP and Atiku,Shopping an Igbo Vice President is not an option because many cannot trust the South East with power because it clear that the region is currently under the sieged of unknown gun men who enforce sit at home at will. Why if they enforce sit at home on elections day? .South South is better option for been the PDP strong hold at the moment and to me Patrick Okowa of Delta State stand as PDP Zullum. Do you know why? He has no case to settle with other regions as against Governor wike who has made so much political enemies both in the South and in the North.
Kwankwaso and peter obi are also on ground to taste their popularity as NNPP and LP Presidential candidates. The next elections will be a tight game between Atiku and whoever emerges in the APC National convention because neither Kwankwaso nor Peter Obi can can compete with either Atiku or the ruling APC.Can Atiku get it at his 6th trial? Time shall tell and APC convention will in no doubt give us an insight on whether or not Atiku’s odd are on the right direction.
Danaudi,National of Arewa Youths advocate for Peace and Unity Initiative. Writes From Bauchi via [email protected].
